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Wheat harvesting begins in RS; output is expected to be a record

 

Cepea, October 18, 2021 – The wheat harvesting began in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and advanced in other Brazilian regions in the first fortnight of October. This year, the output from RS is likely to hit 3.59 million tons, a record and higher than that from Paraná, which is currently the biggest wheat-producing state in Brazil. A report released by Emater/RS on October 7 indicated that 3% of the crops in Rio Grande do Sul had been harvested.

 

According to a report from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) released in the second week of the month, wheat crops have been damaged by frosts and lack of rains this year; however, the significant area increase may result in higher production.

 

Data from Conab indicate that the wheat area in Brazil may total 2.706 million hectares in 2021, 15.6% larger than that in the previous season. Productivity was revised up to 3.027 tons per hectare, 13.7% above that in 2020. Therefore, the output is expected at 8.19 million tons, a sharp increase of 31.4% compared to that in the previous season and a record.

 

In the October report, Conab revised up the domestic availability of wheat (initial stocks + production + imports), due to higher production, to 14.337 million tons, 11.41% higher than that in the crop before and the highest since 2016. As for demand, domestic consumption estimates were kept at 12.34 million tons, 3.7% above that registered in the season before. Exports estimates between August/21 and July/22 were revised up to 900 thousand tons. Ending stocks, by late July 22, may decrease to 1.092 million tons, higher than the 146.9 thousand tons estimated for July/21.

 

DOMESTIC MARKET – Prices in Brazil followed opposite trends in the first fortnight of October. In Paraná, quotes dropped because of the harvesting. On the other hand, the dollar appreciation favored valuations in some other regions, majorly in the wholesale market. As regards liquidity, in general, it was low in the first half of the month, since agents from mills expect prices to drop as the harvesting advances in Rio Grande do Sul.

 

IMPORTS – Secex indicates that, in September/21, Brazil purchased 447.51 thousand tons of wheat, for a decrease of 24.7% compared to the month before and downing 4.1% in relation to September/20.

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

 

 

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