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Favorable weather and estimates for high supply press down values in BR

 

Cepea, October 18, 2021 – The weather favored soybean sowing in most Brazilian regions in the first fortnight of October. This scenario added to estimates for a higher inventory/consumption ratio in the 2021/22 season worldwide, optimism about supply and pessimism about demand pressed down the Futures at CME Group in the second week of the month.

 

Thus, Brazilian purchasers were not interested in closing deals in the spot market, expecting prices to drop in the coming weeks. On the other hand, farmers were not interested in the selling the remaining of the 2020/21 season either, since they were focused on the activities related to the 2021/22 season and are also concerned about the effects of La Niña on crops.

 

Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 15, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá dropped by 4%, closing at 168.55 BRL (30.87 USD)/60-kilo bag on Oct. 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná decreased by 2.9% to 166.48 BRL (30.49 USD)/60-kilo bag.

 

PRODUCTION – According to the USDA, the world soybean output is expected to set a record in the 2021/22 season, estimated at 385.14 million tons, influenced by forecasts for record productions in the United States and in Brazil, at 121.05 million tons and 144 million tons, respectively.

 

In Brazil, according to Conab (National Company for Food Supply), 12.4% of the 39.92 million hectares allocated to soybean crops had been sown until Oct. 9. Among Brazilian regions, 21.2% of the state area had been sown in Mato Grosso; 20%, in São Paulo; 19.8%, in Mato Grosso do Sul; 16%, in Paraná; 14.4%, in Santa Catarina; 13%, in Goiás; and 2%, in both Bahia and Tocantins.

 

DEMAND – Despite slight decreases in the estimates for trades and processing worldwide, both are expected to set records this season, estimated by the USDA at 173.08 million tons and at 328.39 million tons, respectively. The world inventory/consumption ratio is forecast at 27.72%, the highest since the 2018/19 season, due to higher inventories. According to the USDA, China is expected to have the highest ending stocks in all times, at 35.92 million tons by September 2022. Brazil may have the highest soybean inventories since 2018/19, totaling 28.25 million tons in Sept/22.

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

 

 

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